Why are gold prices breaking records at the moment? The gold market posted its sixth consecutive bullish session, breaking a new all-time record during the Asian session. This surge is largely due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve as early as September.

Monetary easing makes the dollar less attractive and mechanically strengthens gold, which, although a non-yielding asset, enjoys a reputation as a safe haven in times of uncertainty.

Added to this monetary context are political tensions in the United States, notably following Donald Trump's dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, reinforcing the perception of institutional instability and driving investors to gold.

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How does geopolitics influence the price of gold?

Market nervousness is not limited to US monetary policy. Contested court rulings around the Trump administration's tariff measures and the prospect of a Supreme Court showdown are creating a further climate of uncertainty.

Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue to weigh on world markets. Faced with this accumulation of risks, investors are turning to gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic shocks.

In a nutshell:

• The greater the political instability, the more gold attracts capital.
• International tensions reinforce its role as a safe haven.

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Why is the $3,500 threshold a psychological barrier?

After breaking through resistance at $3,440, the gold price found a ceiling around $3,500. This level acts as a symbolic and technical barrier, reinforced by overbought indicators.

• Daily RSI: signals a risk of bullish faltering.
• Consolidation zone: after several weeks of progress, investors are reluctant to push higher.
• Psychological threshold: the round figures ($3,500 in this case) often put the brakes on momentum, as the market tests the strength of the trend.

It is therefore not surprising to see a short-term consolidation emerging before a possible upturn.

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Which US economic publications to watch this week?

Gold price volatility could intensify with a series of macroeconomic indicators in the United States :

• ISM manufacturing (Tuesday): state of US industry.
• JOLTS (Wednesday): job offers follow-up.
• ADP report (Thursday): private employment trends.
• NFP (Friday): official employment data, closely followed by the markets.

Weaker-than-expected figures would reinforce expectations of a rate cut, which would support gold at the expense of the dollar.

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What is the technical outlook for gold in the short term?

The key levels to monitor are :

• Immediate support: $3,474-$3,475, observed during the Asian session.
• Major support: $3,440, former ceiling now a potential buying zone.
• Downside risks: in the event of a clean break, gold could slide towards $3,410-$3,400.

Conversely, if buyers defend these supports and economic publications validate the rate cut scenario, a new bullish push beyond $3,500 remains conceivable.

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Conclusion

The price of gold in 2025 is sending out a strong signal to investors. Driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and a tense geopolitical climate, it is now testing major psychological resistance at $3,500. What happens next will depend on both US economic data and the markets' ability to digest the excess optimism built up in recent weeks.